Clinton’s margin of 29 percentage points in 2016. Biden’s margin of victory was just seven percentage points, down from Mrs. In once deeply blue Miami, where a majority of Latinos are of Cuban descent, Mr. Trump has been making false claims of voter fraud since his loss, and he has persuaded many followers that the election was stolen even though there is no evidence of this. “They’re trying to steal the election from Trump.” Mr. “I still believe in my heart that he won 2020,” he said. “We have to have a president who is as pro-life as President Trump,” Mr. Willy Guardiola of Palm Beach Gardens, an immigrant from Cuba who runs a full-time anti-abortion ministry, voted for Mr. Trump won, the red shift was especially large in areas with many people of Cuban descent - including refugees from Communist rule and an energized younger generatio n. Trump lost ground in white and Republican areas in and around cities - ultimately leading to his election loss - he gained new votes in immigrant neighborhoods. Trump's margin in 2020 was lower than it was in 2016.īut even as Mr.

It also fell in Republican precincts: In 3,600 of the 5,000 precincts where he beat Mrs. Trump’s margin declined in those places, compared with 2016.

The Times analysis also shows that in urban and suburban precincts with the highest proportion of white voters, turnout also rose steeply, but Mr. share, that would overturn a great deal of conventional wisdom about the political impact of demographic change.” “And if increased turnout improves the G.O.P. “There remains a huge reservoir of Latino nonvoters and low-propensity voters,” said Roberto Suro, a professor of journalism and public policy at the University of Southern California. That could change, however, with the 2020 turnout surge and Mr. Latino growth in particular had figured in experts’ predictions of the decline of Republican influence in battleground states like Texas, Florida and Arizona. And they had been viewed as likely to tip the scales for Democrats in the future. The chronically low turnout in both groups has been a continuing riddle, but the voters in each group - while widely diverse in background, income and outlook - had leaned heavily Democratic over all. By 2032, Hispanic voters are predicted to make up 18 percent of the electorate and the Asian-American share is also expected to grow. Currently, about 13 percent of eligible voters are Hispanic, and 4 percent are Asian-American. Already the shift appears to have changed outcomes in a number of congressional races.Īsian-Americans and Latinos are growing parts of the American electorate. But in a divided American electorate, any shift can be consequential. With only a few exceptions, all of these areas continued to be Democratic strongholds, giving more votes to Mr. show the change from votes for Hillary Clinton in 2016. The Atlanta area numbers are for Cobb, DeKalb, Fulton and Gwinnett Counties. Notes: Returns are from an entire county or counties in which a city is located.

Nytimes election 2020